On Tuesday, March 17, the future of the Republican Party, perhaps even the future of the American political party system, was on display for all to see.
The most watched primary on that day was the Republican race to oppose Ohio’s Democratic Senator, Sherrod Brown; Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno defeated State Senator Matt Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Moreno is a Trump-backed MAGA Republican. Dolan and LaRose are establishment conservatives but not Trump supporters. As the campaign neared its conclusion, Dolan seemed to be gaining on Moreno. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine (R) endorsed Dolan, signaling that the “regular” Republicans were coming together behind him. But, on the Saturday before the voting, former president Donald Trump altered his campaign schedule to fly into Ohio to campaign with Moreno.
And Moreno won. However, Moreno’s victory signaled more than the fact that MAGA Republicans make up most of the GOP primary voters. His victory said that Trump and his followers are anxious to put their brand of Republicanism on the general election ballot in November—and to win or lose with Trump-backed MAGA candidates.
That tactic runs counter to the strategy followed by Montana Senator Steve Daines, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the individual most directly charged with leading the Republicans back to the majority in the Senate. Daines and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) believe that the GOP lost seats that they should have won in 2020 and 2022, and thus control of the Senate, because they ran inferior candidates, often untried MAGA Republicans whose most noted qualification for office was loyalty to Donald Trump.
In pursuit of winning the Senate, Daines recruited more moderate Republicans, avoiding extremists. He tried to assuage Trump by urging the former president to get behind some of his candidates so that the former president could think of himself as the kingmaker, a role he savors.
Daines most notable success was in his home state of Montana, where he recruited former Navy SEAL and successful businessman Tim Sheehy to oppose Democratic incumbent Senator John Tester. (One sub-theme of Daines’ recruitment was to choose candidates who could largely finance their own campaigns.) All was set until U.S. Representative Matt Rosendale, a MAGA Republican and vocal Trump supporter, entered the race. Daines convinced Trump to endorse Sheehy; two days later, Rosendale withdrew his candidacy and announced he was retiring from politics. The NRSC had their candidate, the one they felt was best suited to unseat Tester, a thorn in their side for holding the seat in one of the reddest states in the nation.
Daines has had other successes as well—in Maryland, with former Governor Larry Hogan competing for an open seat; in Pennsylvania, with businessman David McCormick opposing incumbent Bob Casey in a battleground state; in West Virginia, with Governor Jim Justice all but assured of winning the seat of retiring Senator Joe Manchin.
However, Daines did not get the candidate he wanted in Ohio. Nor did he get the kind of candidate he wanted in Arizona, where MAGA Republican Kari Lake, who lost the governorship in 2022, is taking on Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego for the seat being vacated by Senator Kristin Sinema, the Democrat turned Independent.
Control of the Senate is up for grabs because the Democrats hold a one-seat majority and are defending seats in a series of competitive contests. Assuming that they will lose West Virginia (no Democrat except possibly Manchin approaches Justice’s popularity) to hold the majority, they cannot lose another seat. (President Biden would have to be re-elected so that Vice President Harris held the tie-breaking vote.)
The fate of the MAGA candidates as compared to that of the candidates recruited by Daines will give a telling view of the future of the GOP. Of course, those results will be viewed in conjunction with similar instances in the House. If the Daines-backed candidates win and Moreno and/or Lake lose, the clear signal will be that Trump support alone cannot lead to Republican victories in the future. But if Moreno and Lake win, even if some or all of Daines’ choices win, MAGA Republicans will be emboldened. There is no question that GOP primary voters have embraced Trump and Trump-backed candidates. But politicians want winners in general elections, not just in primaries.
This presidential campaign—win or lose—will be Donald Trump’s last. We know that he is sui generis as a candidate.
The question is whether Trumpism will continue after Trump is gone. If MAGA candidates win and continue to control the GOP in Congress and among the Republican rank-and-file, the future of American politics may well be similar to what we have seen in the recent past—divisive and confrontational politics, norm avoidance, American firstism, little regard for facts, and less for governmental institutions.
But if the establishment candidates do well and the MAGA candidates do not, we could well see a return to more normal politics post-Trump.
We can only hope.